THE FIRST OF FOURTH: NEW FACES FOR FOURTH CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION

For the first time in twenty years, the race for the Fourth Congressional District will not feature an incumbent’s running.  What might November bring?

The Fourth Congressional District is takes in the south-west corner of Nassau County.  It was re-districted a few years ago with its border moving south into communities formerly represented by Congressman Peter King, and now includes Long Beach.  For forty-four years (1953-1997), the Republican Party held the 4th CD seat.  However, in 1994, things began to get topsy-turvy.  Upstart Republican Dan Frisa beat the GOP nominee and incumbent, Dave Levy, in the Party primary and won the general election. Frisa’s single term in office was unremarkable, and his 1996 campaign unraveled under the weight of personal problems.  Carolyn McCarthy had risen to notoriety when her husband and son were shot in a terrorist-like shooting by Colin Ferguson on the Long Island Railroad in Garden City. McCarthy ran and soundly beat Frisa.

McCarthy went on to win the next eight elections.  The Republicans ran an eclectic series of candidates over the years: New York State Assemblyman Greg Becker (1998 and 2000), ophthalmologist Marilyn O’Grady (2002), former Hempstead Village Mayor Jim Garner (2004), former Nassau Police Officer Martin Blessinger (2006), future State Senator Jack Martins (2008) and Nassau County Legislator Fran Becker (2010 and 2012).  The Republicans never came close, garnering a high of 46.6% of the vote (Greg Becker in 1998) to a low of 28.6% (Fran Becker in 2012.)

But earlier this year, Carolyn McCarthy, after 18 years in office and burdened with cancer, announced she would not run for re-election.  Kathleen Rice quickly announced her intention to seek the Democrat nomination, and Kevan Abrahams countered that he would seek a primary against Rice.  The Republicans nominated Bruce Blakeman, who faces a primary challenge from Frank Scaturro.  Who are these players?:

Kathleen Rice:  Kathleen Rice is the Nassau County District Attorney.  She unseated 32-year incumbent Denis Dillon in 2005.  Rice has sought higher office before along, unsuccessfully seeking Democrat Party nomination for New York State Attorney General in 2010, the year after her first re-election as D.A. Critics say Rice has been a mediocre D.A., presiding over a department that has lost convictions due to ongoing blunders by the police lab and for embarking on “social crusades” (such as her “flush-the-johns program”) instead of taking on violent crime head-on.  She served on the Governor’s Moreland Commission investigating corruption, although she has taken campaign gifts from companies actually under investigation by the commission, and the recent, sudden disbanding of Moreland may lessen the pop on that resume line. Her personal life is often under scrutiny, especially since her admission of having “dabbled” with cocaine.  However, the Democrat Party finds her an attractive candidate and a proven vote-getter.  She seems a lock to win the primary.

Kevan Abrahams:  Kevan Abrahms is the Nassau County Legislature’s Minority Leader.  His announcement to seek the 4th CD nomination listed an aggressive set of goals that included "reducing property taxes” (I am unsure how the U.S. House could do this), immigration reform and pay inequality of women” among others.  He pledges to represent “the middle class and the socially vulnerable” (I am unsure if this is contradictory or redundant these days.)  An African American, supporters in his Party hope that he can organize into an effective voting bloc the growing Black and Hispanic constituency in his district.  Abrahams is an affable and talented legislator who has earned respect of his colleagues, but seems to be taking a jump he cannot traverse in his seeking Congress at this time.   

Bruce Blakeman:  Bruce Blakeman served as Majority Leader of the Nassau County legislature for its inaugural first four years, 1996-2000.  He was voted out of office in 1999 during the so-called “Gulotta debacle,” when the Republicans lost majority of the Nassau Legislature.  Although he made bid for New York State Comptroller and ran a campaign for the U.S. Senate against Kirsten Gillebrand, Blakeman has been generally absent from local politics since leaving the legislature. Bruce has knock-out good looks and a lot of money…not a bad start for a candidate. He is well-liked and well-regarded by Party members who recall his years in the county legislature.  Blakeman’s early campaign pitches speak of his being ready to be an opposition to the national Democrat agenda, but his record and positions have in the past appeared as a moderate, rather than as a conservative crusader. Whether this will be enough to stop Kathy Rice remains to be proven on the campaign battleground.  Bruce Blakeman now lives in Long Beach.

Frank Scaturro:  This will be Frank Scaturro’s third bid for the Republican nomination.  Scaturro lost his prior two primaries, but won a write-in nomination in the Conservative Party primary in 2012 and was on the ballot.  Frank Scaturro is a soft-spoken, scholarly attorney, a Law School professor who formerly worked in a U.S. Senate office.  Scaturro represents the conservative wing of the 4th CD constituency and has an extremely dedicated, albeit electorally-limited following.  He well-articulates a consistent conservative message and promises to oppose in Congress many of the trends of the Obama era.  He is taken seriously by the Nassau GOP organization, as evidenced by the volume and degree of contempt expressed for his races by local GOP leaders, whose bridges he has long burned.

What do I make of it?  I think the Republican Party has stumbled in the 4th CD since the second Greg Becker campaign in 2000.  They have put up weak candidates, unable to lure proven winners to run (e.g. Kate Murray.)  They have unnecessarily provoked conservative constituents with attacks on Tea Party and against conservative messenger Frank Scaturro.  Furthermore, the Republican National Congressional Committee never roundly supported any of the races, except for possibly the Fran Becker race of 2010.  It seems that even the Nassau GOP organization were not wholeheartedly supportive or enthusiastic about their candidates.  Maybe the GOP just doesn’t care. With Lee Zeldin possibly taking the 1st CD from Tim Bishop, a talented Grant Lally running credibly against Steve Israel and the well-known Pete King probably being re-elected…are they thinking “let the 4th CD be”?  There are more jobs to give out of the District Attorney’s office if Rice wins, vacates her position as D.A., and the Republicans take back the office of Nassau District Attorney, as they are likely to do in November of 2015, than can be given in D.C. at a  4th CD office. 

The 2014 4th C.D. race seems for the Nassau GOP as “business as usual,” and the business that has been usual in the 4th C.D. has been losing elections.  Add changing demographics and shifting Party enrollments, there seems to early advantage to Rice, who should easily dispatch Kevan Abrahams in the Democrat primary.

And that’s too darn bad.  For eighteen years, Carolyn McCarthy has been a nearly invisible, ineffective representative.  She has been a one-issue harpy on gun control, and has not even been effective in promoting legislation to address that issue.  With limited professional credentials and as a rubber-stamp for her Party’s agenda, she was never meant to be in the same league as national politics. And with Kathleen Rice, I believe we get a leftist ideologue who will be pandering to her Party’s special interests while getting her footing in Washington.  Maybe Bruce Blakeman wins if projected national trends of major Republican gains in Congress translate to the 4th CD and despite a ballot led by Andrew Cuomo. But Blakeman still has the Scaturro factor to cope with, both in the primary and beyond, and at this juncture cannot safely count on the conservative wing of the Nassau GOP.

A competitive race and a strong, independent congressman are needed especially at a time when congress labors under an overreaching executive branch in Washington and as public perception of the job Congress does is low.  I am not sure Kathleen Rice will change that script.  And that’s too darn bad.

(The Primary Election is June 24; the General election is November 4.)